Building on my last post, a further take on the forthcoming Mac App Store. Here’s how the next 18 months will go:
The Mac App Store releases to great fanfare. Existing iOS developers flock to it, re-releasing their apps with minimal modification. They’re joined by more obscure Mac developers who see a distribution opportunity. Established developers, lacking real incentive, stay where they are. Why invest in modifying an already-successful product for the App Store when the reward is reduced revenue and increased overhead?
The result is a success: many Mac users find and manage their software almost exclusively via the App Store. Most occasionally install an app via other means (games, plug-ins, Flash Player, Photoshop, Firefox, etc.) but these manage their own updates anyway, so everything’s fine. Pundits argue that the App Store has only added a layer to an already complex system, but for most users it’s simpler than before.
In the short term, the dearth of preexisting Mac developers in the App Store has a negative impact on user experience: App Store apps behave a little too much like iPad apps (since many began life that way). Things get sorted out in the long term but a disparity remains between the two ecosystems (i.e. the App Store and apps outside it). This hurts usability overall but no one cares because everything’s so damned shiny.
An ingenious group of hackers releases 4ppst0re (or possibly iFreedom), an open-source alternative to the App Store free of Apple’s restrictions and revenue-sharing. It never really catches on due to a mediocre UI and the fact that its ten superb apps are eclipsed by 9,990 others rejected by Apple for legitimate reasons, e.g. instability, uselessness, and/or sheer hideousness.
Unlikely plot twist: Apple, displeased with the two-part app ecosystem, drops the price of Mac OS X to $99 and locks it down iOS-style. Those interested in a “jailbroken” Mac can purchase Mac OS X Developer for $399 (hereinafter known as Mac OS NT). Apple Customer Service is inundated with calls from people who can’t understand why their new copy of Office won’t install, and why they can’t download Flash. In an interview Steve Jobs says, “If these people can’t figure out how to use their Macs they don’t deserve them.” Apple fanboys smash up a Best Buy.
This isn’t a bad future. Most users will have just a few apps outside the App Store ecosystem, and they’ll be reputable ones like Flash and MS Office. They’ll manage most of their apps through the Store, improving stability, security, and performance. Users who don’t discover and install new software today will begin to do so, aiding innovation and introducing far more people to the already vibrant community of small Mac developers.
And yet…it could be even better. The more advanced a user is, the more he’ll operate outside the App Store, and the fewer of its benefits he’ll enjoy. And while we power users are comfortable maintaining our own computers, we don’t like spending a weekend tracking down an elusive kernel panic or reinstalling our OSes. Everything that makes the App Store great for casual users would benefit power users too. If Apple eliminated the most severe of its restrictions and created a more favorable revenue-sharing arrangement for larger, established developers (say, a cap on per-license fees), the balance of these two ecosystems would shift dramatically toward the App Store, simplifying and improving the experience for everyone.